Speaker: Jeremy Barroll, P.E., M.S., PhD student, CU Boulder

Title: The Seasonal Evolution of Water Supply Prediction using Hydrologic and Remotely Sensed Predictors in Catchments across the Western US

Abstract: 

Annual water supply across the western US is highly variable compared to other global regions, creating uncertainty in water management decisions. Water agencies seek more accurate advanced forecasts to plan reservoir operations optimally for water storage and flood protection. For most of the montane western US, springtime snow-water equivalent depth (SWE) is the most skillful predictor of annual water supply. However, SWE generally does not accumulate to its peak annual value in the western US until March or April, depending on region and elevation.

In this dissertation proposal, I seek to predict the variation in SWE and total water supply across mountainous regions of the western US with topographic features such as opposing mountain slopes of prominent crests. The predictive skill of remote oceanic and atmospheric predictors such as sea-surface temperature (SST) is compared across locations. Prediction centers, or areas where oceanic/atmospheric predictors are significantly correlated with SWE/water supply at a given location, are identified separately for small regions. These custom-drawn prediction centers are compared with the use of standard indices such as ENSO and PDO.

Physical mechanisms of SST-water supply relationships are evaluated through the analysis of atmospheric fields such as geopotential height and wind co-occurring with both wet and dry seasons and daily accumulation events. Further, a particle-tracking model is used to compare differences in moisture pathways between adjacent locations, wherever differences in time series between the two locations are significant.

This research aims to advance the understanding of spatial variability in the prediction of SWE and water supply as well as its underlying physical mechanisms.

Bio:  Jeremy Barroll is currently pursuing a PhD in civil engineering. Jeremy’s research presently focuses on small-scale variability in the prediction of water supply in mountainous regions using remotely-sensed sea surface temperature data, as well as differences in atmospheric mechanisms that may explain this variability. The goal of this is to increase the predictive accuracy of large lead time water supply forecasting for small mountain watersheds. Jeremy previously received a BS in civil and environmental engineering from UC Berkeley. Since then, he has worked at an irrigation district in Central California to learn more about the unique water supply and infrastructural challenges facing that region. Jeremy also holds a Professional Engineer license in California.