Speaker: Erin Towler, research scientist, hydrology applications, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
Title: Improving water forecasts "link-by-link" in the hydrometerological forecast chain 

Abstract
To improve water forecasts, research efforts can focus on error sources, as well as skill opportunities, that arise along the links of the hydrometeorological forecast chain. In this talk, I will share some of the big picture drivers that have influenced my recent research efforts, each with a specific example that highlights a link of the chain, including the hydrological model, the driving meteorology and sub-seasonal climate forecasts. In terms of the hydrological model, I will discuss the move towards systematic benchmarking and its use for model evaluation and diagnostics. I will demonstrate a benchmarking framework that is used to evaluate retrospective streamflow simulations across the continental United States. Regarding the driving meteorology, weather prediction models have inherent biases and need to be statistically corrected before being input in a hydrologic model. Here, a state-of-the-art technique for ensemble precipitation post-processing is implemented and assessed in terms of its impact on probabilistic streamflows. Finally, there is an increasing demand for water forecasts to leverage advances in climate forecasting across time and space scales. To this end, I apply a method for incorporating skillful sub-seasonal climate information into streamflow predictions. In summary, providing actionable water forecasts for a diversity of water stakeholders is a priority, as well as a grand challenge, for the water community, and this presentation aims to show how enhancement efforts can be approached “link-by-link."

Bio:
Erin Towler is a research acientist at NOAA’s Physical Science Laboratory (PSL) in Boulder. Erin applies her expertise in water resources, hydrometeorology, streamflow forecasting and hydroclimatology to use-inspired research to benefit water prediction, management and decision-making. Her work has contributed to understanding climate risks to water quantity and quality, with applications in water supply, drinking water sources and treatment,and environmental flows. Her current work focuses on enhancing NOAA water forecasts through incorporating weather and climate information, as well as through advanced hydrological modeling and ensemble methodologies.  
 

Towler received her masters and PhD in water resources engineering from the University of Colorado Boulder. She also worked at NSF NCAR as a project scientist for 11 years.  She is an alum of the NOAA Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) fellowship and serves on the US CLIVAR Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface (PPAI) Panel.