Speaker: Becky Bolinger,  assistant state climatologist, Colorado State University
Title: The Impacts of a Warmer Future on Colorado’s Water

Abstract
In the updated Climate Change in Colorado Report, about a decade after the release of the 2^nd edition, the main takeaway remains the same. Temperatures have significantly increased over the past 100 years – globally, nationally, and locally – and temperatures will likely continue to increase to the end of the 21^st century.  Here, we take a closer look at the ability of the projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 to capture Colorado’s changing climate in the first part of the 21^st century. Temperature trends are well captured by the middle-range scenarios.

There remains uncertainty with the drivers of observed changes in Colorado precipitation and climate change’s role in our future precipitation projections. Regardless, a warmer future will have a significant impact on our state’s water. Using the downscaled CMIP5-LOCA-VIC projections, we see likely declines in peak snowpack, total volume runoff and summer soil moisture. This remains true even for slightly wetter futures.

The final chapter of the updated report focuses on hazards and extremes. Some of the takeaways of this report can trigger emotions of doom and hopelessness. But the results of this report aren’t being shared in a vacuum. They are spurring action and increased planning. I will finish my talk with some examples on how this information is being used.