Speaker: Luis Ceferino, assistant professor, University of California, Berkeley

Topic: Multi-hazard Risk Assessments of Hospital and Power Systems for Short-term Recovery

Abstract
The 2023 M 7.8 Turkey earthquake exposed critical vulnerabilities in hospital systems, with overwhelming demand for services and simultaneous disruptions to care facilities. Similarly, Hurricane Ian in 2022 highlighted weaknesses in power grids, leaving 2.6 million Floridians without electricity. This three-part presentation introduces novel models and applications to evaluate the impacts of earthquakes, hurricanes and compounded events like heatwaves and cyberattacks on urban infrastructure. The first section focuses on earthquake emergency responses in hospital systems, presenting a new framework that optimizes patient transfers, ambulance deployment, and field hospital utilization. A case study from Lima, Peru, will demonstrate how this approach can enhance treatment effectiveness in disaster scenarios. The second section introduces probabilistic models that assess household electricity access during hurricanes, focusing on rooftop solar panels and battery systems. Through a case study in Marlboro Township,

New Jersey, the presentation will explore how these technologies enhanced resilience during Hurricane Isaias (2020), accounting for vulnerabilities in solar infrastructure. Finally, the third section will delve into the compounding risks of extreme heatwaves and cyberattacks. Using New York as an example, we will show how a cyberattack on an already stressed power grid could lead to tens of thousands of outages. Together, these projects aim to provide actionable strategies for resilience officers and emergency responders to protect vulnerable communities from disasters.

Bio

Luis Ceferino is an assistant professor in civil and environmental engineering at UC Berkeley, where he leads the Disaster Risk Analysis Lab. Prof. Ceferino’s lab works on the frontiers of uncertainty quantification, structural modeling and optimization to understand how extreme events like earthquakes and hurricanes impact urban environments and infrastructure systems—and to design innovative solutions for making cities more resilient. Previously, Ceferino was a Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellow at the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University. He completed his MS degree in structural engineering at the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center at Stanford University in 2014 and his undergraduate

studies in civil engineering at the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería in Lima, Peru (BS in 2011). He also earned his PhD in the civil and environmental engineering department at Stanford University. Ceferino has conducted disaster risk analyses for the World Bank to support country-wide risk mitigation policies in Central Asia.